(post poll survey)
Ab ki baar NDA sarkar – that’s the unanimous verdict of several exit polls as far as the big picture is concerned, with all of them predicting either that the NDA would get a majority or would get very close to it. The polls also agreed that the BJP would get its highest tally ever – the range varying from a little over 200 to just under 300.
Most polls also predicted that the Congress would be reduced to its lowest ever tally, though one, the Times Now-ORG poll, put the party’s tally at between 111 and 138 seats, which means it could do better than its 114 seats in 1999. Another common factor was that the AIADMK and Trinamool Congress are likely to emerge as the two largest regional parties with 20 or more seats each.
While broadly agreeing on these trends, the polls varied sharply on details. The Times Now-ORG poll suggested that NDA would win 249 to 265 seats, which would leave it a little short of a majority though well within striking distance. At the other extreme, News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll gave NDA 340 seats, with BJP alone winning 291 seats. If that comes true, it would be the first time since 1984 that any party would get a majority on its own.
The Congress’ predicted tally too varies widely from a mere 57 in the News24 poll to a possible 138 in the Times Now poll. At 57, the Congress wouldn’t just be reduced to a historic low, it would face its biggest crisis since 1947.
Exit polls have gone quite wrong on occasions, including most famously in 2004 when they predicted the NDA would form its third successive government. But they have also got it right on several occasions, including in the latest assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
As per Aaj Tak survey, BJP to get six seats in Delhi. Times Now is giving 6 seats to BJP in Delhi, 1 to Congress and 0 to AAP. Delhi has 7 Parliamentary seats.
BJP to get 46 seats in Uttar Pradesh, Congress 08, Samajwadi Party 12 and BSP 13 seats as per ABP News/AC Nielson survey. As per Times Now/ORG, in UP BJP+ will win 52 seats, Congress+ – 10, BSP – 6 and SP – 12. UP sends 80 seats to Parliament.
The Congress today said that it will not participate in debates on TV channels exit polls. Party spokesperson Shakeel Ahmad said that in keeping with their tradition, they won’t participate in exit polls. He also said that the last time, exit polls had given the Congress 68 seats less than what they had actually got.
In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Congress-led UPA had got 262 seats, whereas BJP-led NDA bagged 159 seats. LK Advani was BJP’s PM candidate. He lost to Manmohan Singh who took oath as PM second time in a row.
An exit poll is taken right after the voters have exited the polling booth. It is different from an opinion poll. In an opinion poll the voter is asked as to whom he plans to vote for.
In an exit poll, the voter is asked as to who they voted for. The exit polls gives an early indication of what the voting pattern has been.
The world’s largest democracy has voted to elect a new government at the Centre and now all eyes are on the exit polls to see whether India is poised for a regime change on May 16.
The last and eighth phase of polling took place on Monday in which voting for 41 seats took place. The whole elections were spread over 35 days.
Counting of votes in all the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies will be taken up on May 16. An average of 66 percent voters exercised their franchise in the last eight phases, as per estimates.
Overall, 9,667 candidates fought for the Lok Sabha seats in a poll that showed a high voter turnout among the 814 million electorate, the world’s biggest.
Most opinion polls put the BJP far ahead of the Congress and others although there is some lingering doubt if the BJP and its allies will bag the magic number of 272 to cross the half-way mark in the Lok Sabha.
……………..
..
My Take 
