2014 Lok Sabha Elections _ State Wide Exit Poll

 

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Andhra Pradesh ( Telangana + Andhra Pradesh )

 

Assam

 

 Bihar

 

Gujarat

 

Karnataka

Kerala

Maharashtra

Madhya Pradesh

Orissa

 

 Punjab

Rajasthan

Tamil Nadu

Uttar Pradesh

 

West Bengal

 

 

 

 

 

2014 Lok Sabha elections: Exit poll (post poll survey)

 

2014 Lok Sabha elections: Exit poll

 (post poll survey)

 

 

Ab ki baar NDA sarkar – that’s the unanimous verdict of several exit polls as far as the big picture is concerned, with all of them predicting either that the NDA would get a majority or would get very close to it. The polls also agreed that the BJP would get its highest tally ever – the range varying from a little over 200 to just under 300.

Most polls also predicted that the Congress would be reduced to its lowest ever tally, though one, the Times Now-ORG poll, put the party’s tally at between 111 and 138 seats, which means it could do better than its 114 seats in 1999. Another common factor was that the AIADMK and Trinamool Congress are likely to emerge as the two largest regional parties with 20 or more seats each.

While broadly agreeing on these trends, the polls varied sharply on details. The Times Now-ORG poll suggested that NDA would win 249 to 265 seats, which would leave it a little short of a majority though well within striking distance. At the other extreme, News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll gave NDA 340 seats, with BJP alone winning 291 seats. If that comes true, it would be the first time since 1984 that any party would get a majority on its own.

The Congress’ predicted tally too varies widely from a mere 57 in the News24 poll to a possible 138 in the Times Now poll. At 57, the Congress wouldn’t just be reduced to a historic low, it would face its biggest crisis since 1947.

Exit polls have gone quite wrong on occasions, including most famously in 2004 when they predicted the NDA would form its third successive government. But they have also got it right on several occasions, including in the latest assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

  As per Aaj Tak survey, BJP to get six seats in Delhi. Times Now is giving 6 seats to BJP in Delhi, 1 to Congress and 0 to AAP. Delhi has 7 Parliamentary seats.

  BJP to get 46 seats in Uttar Pradesh, Congress 08, Samajwadi Party 12 and BSP 13 seats as per ABP News/AC Nielson survey. As per Times Now/ORG, in UP BJP+ will win 52 seats, Congress+ – 10, BSP – 6 and SP – 12. UP sends 80 seats to Parliament.

  The Congress today said that it will not participate in debates on TV channels exit polls. Party spokesperson Shakeel Ahmad said that in keeping with their tradition, they won’t participate in exit polls. He also said that the last time, exit polls had given the Congress 68 seats less than what they had actually got.

  In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Congress-led UPA had got 262 seats, whereas BJP-led NDA bagged 159 seats. LK Advani was BJP’s PM candidate. He lost to Manmohan Singh who took oath as PM second time in a row.

  An exit poll is taken right after the voters have exited the polling booth. It is different from an opinion poll. In an opinion poll the voter is asked as to whom he plans to vote for.

  In an exit poll, the voter is asked as to who they voted for. The exit polls gives an early indication of what the voting pattern has been.

 The world’s largest democracy has voted to elect a new government at the Centre and now all eyes are on the exit polls to see whether India is poised for a regime change on May 16.

 The last and eighth phase of polling took place on Monday in which voting for 41 seats took place. The whole elections were spread over 35 days.

 Counting of votes in all the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies will be taken up on May 16. An average of 66 percent voters exercised their franchise in the last eight phases, as per estimates.

 Overall, 9,667 candidates fought for the Lok Sabha seats in a poll that showed a high voter turnout among the 814 million electorate, the world’s biggest.

 Most opinion polls put the BJP far ahead of the Congress and others although there is some lingering doubt if the BJP and its allies will bag the magic number of 272 to cross the half-way mark in the Lok Sabha.

 

 

 

 

 

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2014 Parliament Elections – Opinion poll gives NDA clear majority

 

 

For the first time in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a poll on Monday predicted a clear majority for any pre-poll alliance with NDTV projecting that the NDA would get 275 seats in the 543-member House. This is 16 seats more than the poll had predicted last month. 

The BJP on its own would win 226 seats, the highest tally ever for the party and the best by any party since 1991, the poll done by Hansa Research estimated. The UPA would win just 111 seats, with the Congress sinking to its lowest ever tally of 92 seats, it said.

The NDA’s projected win is based on impressive gains over 2009 in UP (a gain of 41 seats), Maharashtra (17), Rajasthan (17), Bihar (12), Andhra Pradesh (12) and Madhya Pradesh (10). In just these six states, it stands to gain 109 seats. In most other states too, the NDA is projected to gain, though by more modest amounts. The only major states in which the NDA could do worse than five years ago are Karnataka (a loss of seven seats), Chhattisgarh (two) and West Bengal (one), according to the latest NDTV poll. 

In contrast, the UPA is predicted to lose seats vis a vis 2009 in almost every major state, with Andhra Pradesh being the worst case, where the Congress tally could drop from 33 five years ago to just six this time. Barring Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, the only states where the UPA stands to gain are Assam (a gain of two seats) and Bihar, where the gain of six is really only because the RJD is now part of the alliance unlike in 2009. 

The largest parties after the BJP and Congress would be the Trinamool with 30 seats, the AIADMK with 22, SP with 14 and BJD with 13. The DMK, with its allies is likely to win 14 seats and the Left 22. AAP is projected to win just one seat in Delhi and none elsewhere, at least in the states for which details were available, which included all those with seven seats or more. 

None of these parties, however, will be of much significance if the poll’s predictions come true, since the NDA will not need any postpoll allies to form government and anoint Modi the prime minister. 

 

Courtesy : Times of India ( 15 Apr 2014 edition)

Namo….!!! A Leader Has Arrived.

Heard Narendra Modi speech today, very sensitive and pragmatic.  He was  very clear about his thoughts and intentions. While mentioning the necessity of formation of the Telangana, he was also very clear about the development and formation of Seemandhra.

The so called leaders of this region was failed to understand/provide this clarity to the people and created so much ruckus among the people of both the regions, but they successfully managed to create chaos/confusion and enmity among the people of both the regions, purely for their political and personal gains.

I think we need a leader like Narendra Modi to guide this nation in the right direction. With all due respect to Adavani jee and Vajpayee jee, I vote for Narendra Modi for PM of India.

Gujarat & Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2012 Results

Gujarat Assembly Election 2012 Results

Alliance        Won          Change (compared to 2007)

BJP                 115             -2
Congress        61               +2
GPP                 2                +2    
Others            4                 -2

Total              182/182

Vote Share

Alliance       VoteShare(%)          Change % (compared to 2007)

BJP                 48                               -1
Congress        40                                0
GPP                4                                  +4    
Others            8                                  -3

Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2012 Results

Alliance       Won            Change (compared to 2007)

Congress      36                +13
BJP               26                -15
Others          6                  +2

Total            68/68

Vote Share

Alliance       VoteShare(%)        Change % (compared to 2007)

Congress       43                              +5
BJP                39                               -5
Others           18                                0

 

Exit Poll Results : Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections 2012

Gujarat Exit poll results – Assembly Elections 2012

According to the four exit poll results conducted by various private channels, BJP is expected to bag 118-140 seats in Gujarat while Congress estimated tally ranges between 40-58 in 182-member house.

News 24-Chanakya Exit poll results

BJP              : 140
Congress     : 40
GPP             : 0
Others         : 2

ABP News-Nielsen exit poll results

BJP              : 126
Congress     : 50
GPP             : 2
Others         : 4

Cvoter exit poll results

BJP              : 120
Congress     : 58
GPP             : 2
Others         : 2

Aaj Tak-ORG exit poll results

BJP              : 118-128
Congress     : 50-56
GPP             : 1-2
Others         : 4-6

Himachal Pradesh Exit poll results – Assembly Elections 2012

According to the three exit poll results, there is extremely close race in Himachal Pradesh. Post poll surveys predicted that Congress and the BJP winning between 29 and 35 seats in a 68-member house.

CNN-IBN-CSDS post-poll survey

Congress     : 29-35
BJP              : 29-35
Others         : 2-6

CVoter Exit poll results

Congress     : 34
BJP              : 31
Others         : 3

News24-Chanakya Exit Poll

Congress    : 40
BJP             : 23
Others        : 5

Bal Thackeray